Sterling to Euro exchange rates have settled in a positive area over the last week with prices staying in the 1.16-1.17 area- and we have finally seen a slight reversal in Dollar strength as of Friday which has brought prices up from 1.37-1.39. The UK saw a disappointing GDP reading which ended up being a downward revision from our previous figure- but with reopening now on the cards- it seems maybe market participants are waiting to see how that goes before picking a direction for GBP.

We will see UK inflation and jobs data this week (Wednesday & Thursday) which I think will be looked at closer than last weeks GDP- with inflation being the key issue globally at the moment and all eyes on how many people are leaving the furlough scheme and going back to work- we could see some movement off this release.

The other factor for the UK is of course reopening- currently, the plan is that the UK reopens on July 19th- this is being met with much resistance with cases rising in the UK- However, the numbers do seem to be showing that hospitalizations and deaths are not rising as much- which indicates that vaccines are working and the focus for the Government is getting vaccines out as fast as possible into the remaining age groups.

Though UK reopening is positive- a close eye should be kept on the numbers and if it is likely the UK Government would have to reverse the reopening (Or if they actually go ahead with it).

Aside from the UK- the market really is being led by the U.S at the moment- all eyes are on U.S Jobs numbers, inflation and monetary policy. It is no secret that inflation is rising at an alarming rate at the moment, though not surprising at all. We are now at a point where analysts are looking to the Fed to work out when tapering will begin and when interest rates are likely to go up again- when taper talk does begin, I expect investors to go into the Dollar until the next rotation of trade is picked- and this is something we should all be aware of.

The plan for GBPUSD remains the same as it has all year- anything above 1.40 at the moment is a strong buy, and anything under is not as desirable but a good opportunity for those selling Dollars- EURUSD is also now back below the 1.20 handle, again giving USD sellers a good opportunity.