EUR
EURUSD relentless offered tone continues, with a lot of traders and spec players getting severe FOMO and seeing some participation via downside structures being put in place. Still reluctant to add shorts down at these levels, but 1.0925-30 area can act as clear tight SL if any rally towards 1.0900 is seen. The next leg aided by slightly net higher US CPI print, but the EUR structural flow is being given added momentum via speculative players now with US retail sales the intraday market mover, with IP and U Mich later in the afternoon. Hard to see US data (consumer especially) being anything but robust considering the resilience of the S&P. first resistance ahead of 1.0940, 80 and 1.1015. with support coming in at 1.0850 and 1.0700. Eurozone GDP and employment data today, with the recent divergence of US and EUR data being outlined, this may get some attention and market moves. EURUSD support at 1.0825 short terms with resistance at 1.0925-30.
GBP
All change at number 11, with Javid resigning after PM Johnson and advisor Cummings pressuring him to get rid of his team. With Rishi Sunak the replacement and new Chancellor https://www.ft.com/content/b82ebeae-4e62-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5 …. The former resigning saw GBP rally as the market anticipated this as a further potential for fiscal stimulus, as Javid had been somewhat of a handbrake to BoJo and DC’s plan of spending. So the market, maybe short term, saw some demand from HF client base as this spending could lead to growth and add to the potential Boris bounce, with confirmation that the Budget would still occur next month, but date to be confirmed. With Boris outlining his push for up and coming politicians, it also outlines that he wants to remain in control and that Javid maybe was not toeing the line…
Busy week of data next week domestically, with retail sales, employment, inflation and PMI’s – may have some volatility around GBP, but think further evidence of fiscal plans and obviously trade negotiations still key to bigger move, with EU ambassadors meeting again in Brussels today to continue to sort their Brexit mandate after they failed to agree on Weds.
The flow dynamic was mixed throughout the session, with the early supply of GBP from RM offset with corp demand and HF demand against EUR and USD. GBPUSD levels at 1.2870 and 1.2750, with resistance at 1.3070 short terms ahead of 1.3200, with EURGBP relentless offered yesterday breaking below 0.8300, which has been an area of congestion over the years, and a lot of previous lows from 0.8320-0.8260 (including the post-election low at 0.8260 area). EURGBP resistance comes in short term at 0.8350