Over the last few weeks, much of the focus for the Pound and Euro has been down to economic figures and Central Bank decisions- this week we will see this change as there are a few political meetings and speeches that are set to add volatility into Sterling exchange rates.
The first event this week will be on Tuesday when Theresa May will be meeting her cabinet to discuss their position on Brexit. Any headlines after this showing a united front for the Tories will be strong for the Pound- currently, with Brexit, the main factor for the UK is to have a united Government that can push the UK through this period and keep the economy strong, any sign that isn’t happening will undoubtedly weaken the Pound.
Following this, March 2nd (Friday) will be very important, as Theresa May will address the public and give clarity on what will happen next with Brexit. This will be very interesting as the PM’s speeches in reference to Brexit are usually “Make or breaks” for the Pound. It is impossible to speculate on what she will say, so in this situation, it is important to remain protected and use hedging options to ensure you’re mitigated from exposure when making your transactions.
The next important date for your diary is March 4th when Italy will have their election- so far there is no real volatility on this event, however as we know elections can be unpredictable, it seems that Five Star is on course to be the biggest single party, however we will have to see the results of this election to determine if the Euro will be affected at all- there were talks previously of Italy also wanting to leave the EU which is why traders will be watching this election closely to get an idea of future plans.
Analysts are currently split on the forecast for the Pound- many are suggesting that due to strong economic figures and the BoE looking to hike interest rates again suggests that the Pound will be bullish moving forward, whereas the other side still believes Brexit is weighing the Pound down. Both viewpoints have merit, and the reality is nobody will know who was correct until it is all said and done, the reality is nobody has a crystal ball and can predict market movements- if you are looking to make a transaction, be very sensible about your targets and options- political speeches and events add much volatility to the markets and can cause big swings, that won’t always be in your favour. If the market hits your target, take advantage of it, holding out for a better price once you’ve already got what you wanted isn’t always a great method. I am always here to guide you and assist with working out the numbers that work for you, and if this is something you need over the coming weeks, please don’t hesitate to contact me.
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